The Indo-US Nuclear Deal

In India the per capita power consumption is about 600 Kilowatt Hours. Nations like France, Germany and the United Kingdom average more than 6,000 Kilowatt Hours. This alone is sufficient to give a big picture of India’s electricity needs. Without getting involved with costs and resources it is evident that India’s electricity needs cannot be met without exploiting nuclear power, especially in view of exploding oil prices. And this is where the Indo-US Nuclear Deal enters the scene.

Without the Indo-US Nuclear Deal India cannot increase its nuclear power capacity. Because without the Indo-US Nuclear Deal access to know how, access to raw material and access to reprocessing of spent fuel will be denied to India. Therefore all political parties realize the necessity of the deal. However political parties not in the government, and this includes the opposition and those supporting from outside, are not willing to publicly accept this fact, and understandably so. Political parties need to create their own political space and consolidate their own vote bank. They cannot do this by agreeing with each other. It is essential to have a disagreement. The issue is very similar to brand positioning in the market place.

Two of the main opponents of the nuclear deal are the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Communist bloc (the Left). The BJP is not opposed to an Indo-US Nuclear Deal. They are opposed to the deal that the Congress Party has negotiated. They say that this deal compromises India’s sovereignty. If it does, then that is a cost India has to weigh against the benefits. Unfortunately it would be political suicide for a political part to acknowledge that. Therefore the Congress has fought back on a different front. They claim that the deal that NDA government, under BJP’s leadership, had negotiated was even more harmful to India’s interests. They say that the restrictive covenants of the deal will anyway exist. Unfortunately for the people of India any public debate immediately shifts to vociferous rhetoric rather than staying the course of sensible argumentation.

The Left on the other hand is opposed to any deal with the US, nuclear or otherwise. The US is the Left’s traditional imperial enemy. The Congress and the Left disagree on many issues and are on the same side for the sole purpose of keeping the BJP out of power. The Congress is not bothered about responding to the Left’s criticism. All they say is that they are trying to convince the Left.

So the million-dollar question remains. Will the Indo-US Nuclear Deal go through or not? For the time being let us ignore the requirements imposed by the US election year and the steps yet to be completed before the deal can go through. Can the Congress afford to sign the nuclear deal? The Congress can sign the deal without the Left’s support but it cannot get the deal ratified by Parliament without the Left’s support. The Left cannot support the deal without risking erosion of its core vote bank. Hence the cold fact is that this government cannot make the nuclear deal a reality.

But this does not mean that Congress has nothing to gain by signing the deal. If Congress wants to precipitate early elections all it has to do is sign the deal and compel the Left to withdraw support. So the question boils down to whether it is in Congress’ interests to force early elections. The answer seems to be “no”. Congress has suffered severe setbacks in recent state elections and its image has taken a beating. It has started a consolidation process with a populist budget, a cabinet reshuffle and with Rahul Gandhi’s offensive. But it needs time to see the consolidation process through. Therefore it is not likely to do anything in a hurry. The next stop is the election in Karnataka. If the results are spectacular for congress then, maybe it will take the plunge.

But I doubt it.